Ebola

Out of context: Reply #157

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  • mg330

    This is what should frighten you to your core. Chart shows realistic, exponential spread of ebola, and the resulting deaths.

    These are theoretical calculations I'm copying from a good source, based on a "patient 0" - in this case, the infected man in Dallas. The problem beyond this is multiple "patient 0's" - new people arriving from infected countries introducing the virus into a new community in the United States. I'm not a fear-mongering person, but really, exponential growth of a virus and the spreading of it is completely realistic. Sorry bum anyone out on a Friday, but here you go:

    Sep, 2014 - Infected: 3 Dead: 2 ROI: 3.47
    Oct, 2014 - Infected: 12 Dead: 8 ROI: 3.47
    Nov, 2014 - Infected: 42 Dead: 29 ROI: 3.47
    Dec, 2014 - Infected: 145 Dead: 101 ROI: 3.47
    Jan, 2015 - Infected: 503 Dead: 352 ROI: 3.47
    Feb, 2015 - Infected: 1,746 Dead: 1,222 ROI: 3.47
    Mar, 2015 - Infected: 6,058 Dead: 4,240 ROI: 3.47
    Apr, 2015 - Infected: 21,020 Dead: 14,714 ROI: 3.47
    May, 2015 - Infected: 72,940 Dead: 51,058 ROI: 3.47
    Jun, 2015 - Infected: 253,102 Dead: 177,171 ROI: 3.47
    Jul, 2015 - Infected: 878,262 Dead: 614,784 ROI: 3.47
    Aug, 2015 - Infected: 3,047,570 Dead: 2,133,299 ROI: 3.47
    Sep, 2015 - Infected: 10,575,068 Dead: 7,402,548 ROI: 3.47
    Oct, 2015 - Infected: 36,695,486 Dead: 25,686,840 ROI: 3.47
    Nov, 2015 - Infected: 127,333,337 Dead: 89,133,336 ROI: 3.47

    This assumes he at least infected 3 in September which is very realistic at the higher R0 of 3.47

    If it's 2.60
    Sep, 2014 - Infected: 3 Dead: 2 ROI: 2.6
    Oct, 2014 - Infected: 7 Dead: 5 ROI: 2.6
    Nov, 2014 - Infected: 18 Dead: 12 ROI: 2.6
    Dec, 2014 - Infected: 46 Dead: 32 ROI: 2.6
    Jan, 2015 - Infected: 119 Dead: 83 ROI: 2.6
    Feb, 2015 - Infected: 309 Dead: 216 ROI: 2.6
    Mar, 2015 - Infected: 803 Dead: 562 ROI: 2.6
    Apr, 2015 - Infected: 2,088 Dead: 1,462 ROI: 2.6
    May, 2015 - Infected: 5,430 Dead: 3,801 ROI: 2.6
    Jun, 2015 - Infected: 14,117 Dead: 9,882 ROI: 2.6
    Jul, 2015 - Infected: 36,703 Dead: 25,692 ROI: 2.6
    Aug, 2015 - Infected: 95,429 Dead: 66,800 ROI: 2.6
    Sep, 2015 - Infected: 248,115 Dead: 173,681 ROI: 2.6
    Oct, 2015 - Infected: 645,100 Dead: 451,570 ROI: 2.6
    Nov, 2015 - Infected: 1,677,259 Dead: 1,174,082 ROI: 2.6
    Dec, 2015 - Infected: 4,360,874 Dead: 3,052,612 ROI: 2.6
    Jan, 2016 - Infected: 11,338,273 Dead: 7,936,791 ROI: 2.6
    Feb, 2016 - Infected: 29,479,510 Dead: 20,635,657 ROI: 2.6
    Mar, 2016 - Infected: 76,646,727 Dead: 53,652,709 ROI: 2.6
    Apr, 2016 - Infected: 199,281,489 Dead: 139,497,042 ROI: 2.6

    Keep in mind the US has better health care so I do think the RO will be lower at first... and may increment if they cannot contain it due to the 21 day incubation period allowing it to spread in stealth.

    Here is the calculation for 1.82 as per the original R0 at the start of the outbreak in Eblolica.

    Sep, 2014 - Infected: 2 Dead: 1 ROI: 1.82
    Oct, 2014 - Infected: 3 Dead: 2 ROI: 1.82
    Nov, 2014 - Infected: 6 Dead: 4 ROI: 1.82
    Dec, 2014 - Infected: 11 Dead: 8 ROI: 1.82
    Jan, 2015 - Infected: 20 Dead: 14 ROI: 1.82
    Feb, 2015 - Infected: 36 Dead: 25 ROI: 1.82
    Mar, 2015 - Infected: 66 Dead: 46 ROI: 1.82
    Apr, 2015 - Infected: 120 Dead: 84 ROI: 1.82
    May, 2015 - Infected: 219 Dead: 153 ROI: 1.82
    Jun, 2015 - Infected: 399 Dead: 279 ROI: 1.82
    Jul, 2015 - Infected: 726 Dead: 508 ROI: 1.82
    Aug, 2015 - Infected: 1,321 Dead: 925 ROI: 1.82
    Sep, 2015 - Infected: 2,404 Dead: 1,683 ROI: 1.82
    Oct, 2015 - Infected: 4,375 Dead: 3,063 ROI: 1.82
    Nov, 2015 - Infected: 7,963 Dead: 5,574 ROI: 1.82
    Dec, 2015 - Infected: 14,492 Dead: 10,145 ROI: 1.82
    Jan, 2016 - Infected: 26,376 Dead: 18,463 ROI: 1.82
    Feb, 2016 - Infected: 48,005 Dead: 33,603 ROI: 1.82
    Mar, 2016 - Infected: 87,369 Dead: 61,158 ROI: 1.82
    Apr, 2016 - Infected: 159,011 Dead: 111,308 ROI: 1.82
    May, 2016 - Infected: 289,400 Dead: 202,580 ROI: 1.82
    Jun, 2016 - Infected: 526,709 Dead: 368,696 ROI: 1.82
    Jul, 2016 - Infected: 958,610 Dead: 671,027 ROI: 1.82
    Aug, 2016 - Infected: 1,744,670 Dead: 1,221,269 ROI: 1.82
    Sep, 2016 - Infected: 3,175,300 Dead: 2,222,710 ROI: 1.82
    Oct, 2016 - Infected: 5,779,045 Dead: 4,045,332 ROI: 1.82
    Nov, 2016 - Infected: 10,517,862 Dead: 7,362,504 ROI: 1.82
    Dec, 2016 - Infected: 19,142,509 Dead: 13,399,756 ROI: 1.82
    Jan, 2017 - Infected: 34,839,367 Dead: 24,387,557 ROI: 1.82

    mg33 0Permalink
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    • You can likely 'project' far enough any disease with a mortality rate to wipe out the human race.ETM
    • Because the calcs are ideal circumstances and there are SOOO many variables.ETM
    • "realistic" then "theoretical", so which it is??GeorgesII
    • Nothing is realistic until proven. This is not.ETM
    • Fuck off telling people to be frightened to the core. Mainstream media fear mongering sheep.set
    • Pathetic, ignorant and irresponsible.set
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