Joe Biden of the day
Out of context: Reply #210
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https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/…
Great article on "Why You Can't Rely on Election Forecasts"
EXCERPT 1:
"If a probability model gives a candidate a 53 percent chance of winning, that means that if we ran simulations of the election 100 times, that candidate would win 53 times and the opponent 47 times — almost equal odds.In its final forecast in 2016, FiveThirtyEight gave Hillary Clinton a 71.4 percent chance of victory. (The digit after the decimal providing an aura of faux precision, as if we could distinguish 71.4 percent from 71.5 percent.) All that figure really said was that Mrs. Clinton had a roughly one-in-three chance of losing, something that did not get across to most people who saw a big number. "
Excerpt 2:
If I read that there is a 20 percent chance of rain and do not take an umbrella, the odds of rain coming down don’t change. Electoral modeling, by contrast, actively affects the way people behave.Excerpt 3:
I’m not sure there is a meaningful difference between, say, a 20 percent and a 40 percent chance of winning. That’s another way of saying these forecasts aren’t that useful, and may even be harmful if people take them too seriously.- Excerpt 2 does not compute. The rain rain prediction actively affected your behaviour not to take an umbrella.tangoxray3
- Excerpt 1: 71.4 is closer to 75 than 66.6%. So it’s a 3 in 4 chance of winning.tangoxray3
- Or 1 in 4 chance of losing.tangoxray3
- 4 years ago should have already taught us this, people are dumb though, its easier to just be told what to think.moldero
- The rain happens regardless of your umbrella. They didn't say the odds of getting wet. They said the odds of rain don't change. It's pretty simple.nb