2020 Election Predictions

Out of context: Reply #33

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  • yuekit5

    In case people watching from overseas are confused right now...

    You can't draw any conclusion from a state when only 10% is reported, or even 50% this year.

    This year is unique because Democrats are voting heavily by mail due to COVID. Meanwhile Republicans are voting almost all in person because Trump vilified the mail in voting process.

    Some states are starting with only mail in votes which makes it look like a huge Biden win. Then the in person votes are added and suddenly it looks like a Trump landslide.

    But...hundreds of thousands of mail in votes in Dem counties are also still outstanding in some of these states.

    Currently it looks like Trump has won Florida while Biden has won Arizona. Two states that were both very close and important to putting together the electoral votes needed.

    That makes the states most likely to decide the election Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, which all have large numbers of votes remaining to count.

    yuekit 5Permalink
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    • from what the experts are saying on tv here, you're totally rightBennn
    • see yuekit canadian tele said you're right :Dsted
    • this shouldn't be a close call. Republicans should be advocating for the President to resign based on basically any time he talks. This should not be 2 sidesESKEMA
    • it should be universal that that cunt is unfit for anything.ESKEMA
    • Just one example...it looked like Trump was winning Virginia which no one expected and liberals were jumping out of windows. They just updated it and Bidenyuekit
    • comfortably ahead now.yuekit
    • Biden also just took the lead in the overall popular vote now.yuekit
    • Good point Yuekit, If Biden takes MI, WI, and PA. If Biden takes those three, he'll take the electoral vote by at least 18 points +/- a few.ayport
    • Actually he only needs two out of three of those states.yuekit
    • And weirdly there are districts in some states that award EC votes separately from the overall state, which in some scenarios could make the difference.yuekit
    • https://twitter.com/…yuekit
    • Not saying Trump won't win BTW, just that it's too early. The results we're seeing aren't inconsistent with what was expected so far.yuekit
    • do we know how many ppl voted by mail?sted
    • Isn't that what the whole stink was about this week. Trump is going to declare victory the night of. Close out the people afraid to vote in person.toemaas
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