Coronavirus
Out of context: Reply #4562
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- ApeRobot-1
AMERICAN COUNCIL ON SCIENCE AND HEALTH
There are several observations worth noting. First, as we have long known, people of college age and younger are very unlikely to die. The 5-9 and 10-14 age groups are the least likely to die. (Note that an IFR of 0.001% means that one person in that age group will die for every 100,000 infected.) The 0-4 and 15-19 age groups are three times likelier to die than the 5-9 and 10-14 age groups, but the risk is still exceedingly small at 0.003% (or 3 deaths for every 100,000 infected).
Second, the IFR slowly increases with age through the 60-64 age group. But after that, beginning with the 65-69 age group, the IFR rises sharply. This group has an overall IFR just over 1% (or 1 death for every 100 infected). That's a fairly major risk of death. (The red line in the chart marks where the "1% threshold" is crossed.) The IFR then grows substantially and becomes quite scary for people in their 70s and older. People in the 75-79 age group have more than a 3% chance of dying if infected with coronavirus, while people aged 80 and over have more than an 8% chance of dying. That's roughly the same chance as rolling a four with two dice.
Third, the virus discriminates. Beginning with the 20-24 age group, men are about twice as likely to die as women from COVID. This pattern remains in each age group through 80+.
With this data, let's hope that public health officials and policymakers can craft smart guidelines in regard to what parts of society should be locked down and how vaccines should be allocated.
Source: O’Driscoll, M. et al. "Age-specific mortality and immunity patterns of SARS-CoV-2." Nature. DOI: 10.1038/s41586-020-2918-0 (2020).
- https://www.acsh.org…ApeRobot
- Do you have the numbers for hospital and ICU admission rates?dmay
- Silence doesn't fly too high on this board Ape, so be ready for an avalanche of down votes.pr2
- @pr2, do you have the numbers for hospital and ICU admission rates?dmay
- dmay, do you think i'm some kind of data clearing house? i BET there is a paper on that. Just search.pr2
- Well, I searched and got this: https://gis.cdc.gov/…dmay
- Apparently half of the hospitalizations are from UNDER 65dmay
- Many of those will have symptoms that will linger or recur for weeks or monthsdmay
- https://www.cdc.gov/…dmay
- So it’s not only about survival.dmay
- your 2nd link points to a PHONE interview. This sort of "science" gave us "1 in 5 women experience rape on collage campus" fairy tale. HOW the study is done...pr2
- ...is as important as its findings. That's why every science paper describes methology so that everyone can see how full of shit the paper is (or isn't).pr2
- Ok, here’s a list of several studies about long COVID:
https://www.idsociet…dmay - And about the first link, where it shows that half of the hospitalizations are from under 65, is that REAL data?dmay
- Showing that COVID affects not only the eldest but almost every age group?dmay
- dmay, who do you think is saying that covid doesn't affect every age group (minus kids, which covid REALLY doesn't affect)?pr2
- what is being said is that the outcome of those hospitalizations is greatly affected by your comorbidity and your age.pr2
- ware you aware that 6% (!!!) of flu hospitalizations end in death? yes, something THIS innocent kills that many.pr2
- So we either say that "shit, i didn't know flu was that dangerous!!!" and start freaking out over anybody sneezing on the bus OR...pr2
- re-visit our original fear where covid (that is 1-3x - depending on study - as deadly as flu) is nothing to be afraid of.pr2
- (based on me having it, my wife having it, my babysiter - an older lady - having it, my 76 yo mother having it, covid is like a really bad flu...)pr2
- (... so no i'm not belittling the virus calling it like flu but using flu as a relative fear factor)pr2
- So, you’re saying COVID = really bad flu, based in death rates and your personal experience?dmay
- from my response DIRECTLY above yours:
"so no i'm not belittling the virus calling it like flu but using flu as a relative fear factor"pr2