Coronavirus

Out of context: Reply #4569

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  • pr2-3

    Fantasy ("mathematical models") v reality (hard data) in Covid:

    Imperial College fantasized that about 2.35mil deaths in US and 580k in UK.

    The reality: US at 530k and UK at 125k (and those numbers reflect BOTH because of covid and WITH covid).

    And no, the numbers are not "low" because of mitigation and lock downs but rather because the models are only as good as the data you feed it and early on we have very little of it.

    Conclusions: if the original predictions put the fear of God in your heart (as it did into mine), maybe it's time to revisit the original assertions?

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    • How do you know the numbers are not low because of mitigation and lock down?nb
    • I knew this would happen: the better we succeed at preventing deaths, the more likely we hear people say "see! we must have overreacted!"nb
    • come on, you can't presume we found a "magic pill" that somehow decreases mortality by 80%.pr2
    • Is it really appropriate to gloat over this? They predicted 2 million deaths in the USA if nothing was done, we're at 500k and counting after strict measuresyuekit
    • 500k is WITH and BECAUSE of covid. The real covid deaths are probably 200-300k. Ask yourself if instead of 2.3mil, you heard 230k, would that produce...pr2
    • ...the same fear in your head?pr2
    • You're just picking figures and dates and predictions randomly without context. You're really not as good at this as you think you are.Fax_Benson
    • You been on a plane lately? You've been in a mall? Manhattan? Did you notice anything? It's been 1.5 years, man!nb
    • Fax, yeah, those pesky scientists writing papers about why the models don't match the data. Yeah...pr2
    • NB, What the fuck do malls have to do with anything? Dude, please learns to be more precise in your thinking.pr2
    • @pr2 read this
      https://www.scientif…      yuekit
    • "A physician, medical examiner or coroner fills out the cause of mortality on the death certificate. That specialist is instructed to include only conditionsyuekit
    • that caused or contributed to death. One field lists the sequence of events leading to the death."yuekit
    • Goes on to say death certificates that only list COVID-19 are most likely incomplete because there is always some other complication involved, even if thatyuekit
    • derived directly from COVID itself. One example would simply be "respiratory failure", which we all know is what happens when you get COVID.yuekit
    • yuekit, your candy lined reality is not the one i live in. If you think that over 3000 counties across the us, use the same system of classifying...pr2
    • ...deaths, then i wish you luck living in your fairy tale. (and yeah, i've done a commercial for a coroners office and this is one of the issue they mentioned)pr2
    • pr2, how many planes need to go down in a fiery crash before you refuse to fly? 1/month, 1/week? the number is 5 planes per day in the US_niko
    • every single day for the past year. Now you're saying, yeah but the number is only 2.5 planes per day, not so bad._niko
    • niko, here lies the problem: you use a comfortable analogy that at first makes perfect sense but under further inspection it...pr2
    • ...falls apart. There are only 25000 airplanes in the world and they could hold only 6mil of the population (that's less than 1%).pr2
    • so it's obvious that every crash is traumatic, but if there were 25mil airplanes, to hold all of the population, nobody would care.pr2
    • What exactly is candy lined about a world where more people died from a virus?yuekit
    • Is that even a saying anyway, candy lined? I think you just made that up lolyuekit
    • Anyway read the Scientific American article. The cause of death is not left to individual counties, there is actually a national agency that looks at theyuekit
    • test results, vital records and determines what the person died from.yuekit
    • "2/3 of the excessive deaths are attributed to covid" - paraphrase from the article. I saw of the 500k, probably 300k are due to covid as the article says.pr2
    • do we finally agree on something?pr2
    • "i said"pr2
    • No they're talking about excess deaths overall. They aren't saying only two thirds of COVID deaths are real.yuekit
    • Main point is that this "died of COVID vs. died with COVID" thing is based on a misunderstanding. Ask yourself how many times you've seen that repeated.yuekit
    • it not not based on understanding. are u aware that no 1 excess death disease is alzheimer's (at 45k)? Nothing to do with covid and everything...pr2
    • ...to do with lockdowns.pr2
    • (sorry for bad spelling/grammar)pr2
    • The misunderstanding is that there should ALWAYS be another cause of death, if the death was recorded accurately. Because no one dies from just COVID-19, justyuekit
    • like no one dies directly from HIV. But people seize on this to say "wow...90% of COVID deaths have another cause" when that's exactly what is expected.yuekit
    • The president of USA retweeted this lol. There's just a sea of misinformation out there and this seems to fall under that category.yuekit
    • yeah, but i'm not talking about the president and his tweets. i'm talking about fabulously over exaggerated math models that put fear into us.pr2
    • now that the REAL data is in, we have to re-thing those fears.pr2
    • re-think - ah, my spelling just suck!pr2
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