Coronavirus

Out of context: Reply #4611

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  • pr2-10

    I guess running numbers to reach some broad estimates is something of hobby of mine so i decided to estimate how many people actually had covid.

    Case Fatality Rate of California is at 1.5%. This means that of all tested AND positive cases, the 1.5% perished. This obviously doesn't reflect all positive cases as many people with mild or no symptoms never got tested or had no access to testing. This means that the ACTUAL CFR of 1.5% is lower. How much lower?

    A number of papers point to case fatality of 0.5 to 1%. For the sake of our exercise we'll use California CFR of 1.5%, optimistic CFR of 0.5% and conservative mid-point value of 1%.
    If we use death count as reported by each state and CFR, we can calculate ACTUAL number of covid cases. YES, i get it, it IS a broad over-generalization.

    Using optimistic CFR of 0.5%:
    In US at 30mil cases and 550k deaths, CFR is 1.8%. This means that if you are an optimist and take the low end of CFR (0.5%), there are 108mil ACTUAL cases (35% of US population).
    For California with 3.6mil cases and 56k deaths, CFR is 1.5%. This means that optimistically there are 10.8mil ACTUAL cases (26% of Cali population).
    For NY State with 1.8mil cases and 49k deaths, CFR is 2.7%. This means that optimistically there are 9.7mil ACTUAL cases (50% of NYS population)

    Since i live in NYC, we can take closer look here.
    Brooklyn: 225k cases, 9.4k deaths (CFR 4.2%) --> ACTUAL case number is 1.890m (!). This is 86% of Brooklyn population.
    Queens: 225k cases, 9k deaths (CFR 4%) --> ACTUAL case number is 1.800m (!). This is 82% of Queens population.
    Manhattan: 115k cases, 4k deaths (CFR 3.5%) --> ACTUAL case number is 805k. 50% of Manhattan population.
    Bronx: 160k cases, 6k deaths (CFR 3.75%) --> ACTUAL 1.2m. 86% of Bronx population.

    If you were to take very conservative 1% CFR, the NYC numbers would look as follows:
    Brooklyn: 225k cases, 9.4k deaths --> ACTUAL case number is 945k. This is 43% of Brooklyn population.
    Queens: 225k cases, 9k deaths --> ACTUAL case number is 900k. This is 41% of Queens population.
    Manhattan: 115k cases, 4k deaths --> ACTUAL case number is 400k. 25% of Manhattan population.
    Bronx: 160k cases, 6k deaths --> ACTUAL 600k. 43% of Bronx population.

    I don't know about you, but the future is looking bright in my eyes.

    pr2 -10Permalink
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    • Popular pastime these days.Fax_Benson
    • Since you wrote this yesterday, there have been 400,000 more cases in NYC. Fact. Also, your math is stupid af.monospaced
    • mono, unlike you, i don't read the unicorn news.pr2
    • You don’t know what I read. But I know your math here is stupid afmonospaced
    • even my 5yo uses better arguments than you.pr2
    • https://i.imgflip.co…drgs
    • That's not an argument. And your math is atrocious here.monospaced
    • YOU are the one who thinks that 400k new cases materialized overnight in NYC. It seems your comprehension of the most basic numbers is abysmal.pr2
    • Nope. I just took the current total and subtracted the incorrect total you posted here and the remainder is 400k. It’s actually basic math and ...monospaced
    • I just happen to be incredibly talented at mathematics. Both rudimentary and advanced types. Your math is abysmal.monospaced
    • You’re taking the deaths and multiplying them by 100 to get actual case counts. That, sir, is stupid af math.monospaced
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