Russia-Ukraine Invasion
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- grafician2
https://twitter.com/gummibear737…
[thread]:
I reponded that America is footing most of the bill for this
He laughed, hard
He said: win, lose or draw, the Americans win
Main points
-“Money” being sent to Ukraine is mostly in form of arms/weapons
-They’re sent via “lend-lease” meaning Ukraine will have to pay it back2
-It wasn’t until after Ukraine showed that it would not be occupied by Russia, that the US committed big budgets and armaments
-After the war, the EU will be on the hook for rebuilding Ukraine, integrating them into the union and thus helping pay back the US lend-lease arms3
-The US is passing off older, strategically obsolete weapons which would eventually be replaced (HIMARS)
-The US didn’t part with any of their most effective and technologically advanced systems (helicopers, planes)
-NATO is strengthened under US leadership4
-America will achieve all its strategic objectives on the cheap
-Europe will need to invest in their military which will mean big business for the US
-Russian armaments have been exposed as inferior so Russia will lose global marketshare to the US military industry5
-Europe is essentially decoupled from the Russian energy tit, creating a huge opportunity for US LNG
-Europe falls completely out of Russian influence
-The Russian military is grounded down by Ukraine with no American soldiers dying
-Russia finished as a threat to US influence6
-The US can now focus all military attention towards containing China
-This is also a wakeup call for EU to take China seriously as a military adversary
-EU-China relations have been set back decades in terms of cooperation7
-The days of the US having to twist the EU’s arm to not let Huawei build their 5G system are over
-China’s slow moving influence campaign into Europe is essentially done
-China now needs to think much harder about invading Taiwan...both militarily and strategically (sanctions)8
The conclusion was that whatever the actual costs to the US, it’s peanuts compared to the accomplishment of these strategic objectives which will be reaping dividends for years to come
Ultimately the EU will shoulder most of the suffering while the US reaps the benefits
9
Some people are asking me for proof...it’s an analysis...and it’s by someone else
You can fact check the lend-lease aspect but even if it’s not repaid it doesn’t change the main point
I did a deepdive on this in May but didn’t touch much on geopolitics
10
- Huge if truegrafician
- You don't get something for nothing...PhanLo
- I thought this was all pretty apparent?_niko
- +1 nikoPalindrome
- It's ok. The HIMARS are doing wonders. And better getting the gas from the US than Russia.NBQ00
- This will only hold with democrats in power both in the US and EU. Anything far side will mean joining the dark sidegrafician
- Democrats in the EU you say?monospaced
- Pardon, meant liberals, centrists more or less, not far right or conservativesgrafician
- I seemonospaced
- The connection to China seems tenuous there.i_monk
- grafician0
"Russia's military action in Ukraine will continue, the Kremlin said Monday, after Ukrainian forces reclaimed significant territory in a counter-offensive in the country's east"
- originally they wanted to snap kiew in 3 days.... flipping full scale idiots...neverscared
- sted0
Who thinks that after these few months of World of Tanks they are going to retreat and drop whatever heavy what can level a large part of the country?
- lol, you really need to either check and edit your poists, or (as me) check after clumsily editing :)
I'm not sure where they CAN go after thisNairn - I don't think they'll go with tactical nukes, because that would be really stupid, so what else can they do? Send high altitude bombers over Kyiv?Nairn
- Full-mobilization will only be met with everyone else digging their collective heels in even deeper, so...? Surrender? Nope. Retreat? Unlikely. Stop'n'stalemateNairn
- Full mobilisation would *probably* direct Nato involvement. Which — if the use of US weapons is any indication — would surely spell humiliation for the SovietsContinuity
- ... err, Russians.Continuity
- Speaking of checking and editing ... 'would probably _result_ in direct Nato involvement.'Continuity
- @Nairn yeah everything but nuke. Retreat as get most of their forces out of the country before the bloodbath. There is not much tactical resistance on the rassasted
- end of this gallop.sted
- I have no proof but America has already let the Russians know that Ukraine has "developed" nukes and are pointed at Moscow just in case..._niko
- lol, you really need to either check and edit your poists, or (as me) check after clumsily editing :)
- grafician1
"A Ukrainian intelligence unit on the front line said the Russian chain of command was broken and soldiers were fleeing without putting up a fight
They report that many of the soldiers have changed into civilian clothes to avoid detection"
"A drone operator returning from the front line on Sunday also told The Telegraph that the speed of the offensive had even taken their own army by surprise, with troops struggling to recover the mountains of Russian ammunition and armoured vehicles left behind"
"In one intercepted communication, a commander with the callsign Birdie described hearing a Russian tank unit desperately asking what had happened to their command.
‘We are totally f—ed’"
- yuekit0
The loss of Kupiansk and Izium, the two transportation hubs, pulls the plug on Russia's chances of seizing the entire eastern region of Donbas, comprised of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts.
- I'll be very interested to see if all of this leads to Ukraine attempting to finally liberate Crimea. I hope so.Continuity
- Russia has had a naval base in Crimea for a long time, even when it was part of Ukraine. So that would be catastrophic for themyuekit
- Another thing to watch is what happens to dictators around the world who rely on Russian military support, like the rulers of Syria and Myanmar.yuekit
- But I doubt there will be such a total collapse of Russian power, unless they are really stupid they'll scale back the war instead.yuekit
- Whatever happens, Russia armament exports (the Other Thing, after hydrocarbons, they still manage to export) are Fucked.Nairn
- ^ Well, as it happens, The Guardian was reporting earlier that the Ruskies were *importing* weapons from Iran and NK.Continuity
- Yeah that was an interesting speculation of the thread grafician posted above. Not only will they struggle to obtain sanctioned technology, the war in Ukraineyuekit
- has got to be the worst demonstration possible of Russian armaments :)yuekit
- or at least the people who use themhans_glib
- the vietnamese did ok with their akshans_glib
- ^ To be fair, that was also over 40 years ago, when that kit was more or less shiny new.Continuity
- @yuekit - I watched some nerdy doc the other day. I'll link it later, when I'm back at home as it was on my laptop, cealry not logged ito YouTubeNairn
- Suffice to say, the Ukr War is just the latest event in a long, slow drawn-out death for an industry essential to Russia. Kind of worrying, really.Nairn
- A hour log..
https://www.youtube.…Nairn - The n key o my laptop is playig up. See?
Fucking hell. Oh, it worked there. Thaks.Nairn - Thanks I'll check it out. Interesting how this channel seemingly evolved from being about video wargames to actual war...yuekit
- Nerds gonna nerd.
Also interesting:
https://twitter.com/…Nairn
- yuekit1
Vladimir Putin's chief envoy on Ukraine told the Russian leader as the war began that he had struck a provisional deal with Kyiv that would satisfy Russia's demand that Ukraine stay out of NATO, but Putin rejected it and pressed ahead with his military campaign, according to three people close to the Russian leadership.
Putin made it clear when presented with Kozak's deal that the concessions negotiated by his aide did not go far enough and that he had expanded his objectives to include annexing swathes of Ukrainian territory, the sources said. The upshot: the deal was dropped.
- sted0
- shapesalad0
Classy. Russia recruiting criminals for their pathetic war.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news…What could go wrong, sending a bunch of rapists into Ukraine.
- Ukraine did this in July.
https://tinyurl.com/…face_melter - what the fuck is that shitty website? lolscruffics
- Ukraine did this in July.
- yuekit0
Over 400 people found buried in mass graves in Izyum after Russia flees the city
- neverscared2
- maniac mass murderous joke thoughneverscared
- A room full of Leaders of third world countries with 17th century mentality trying to be relevant in the 21st century_niko
- Authoritarians Anonymousgrafician
- all too paranoid to touch the food because of chance its poisoned..neverscared
- C.U.N.T.S.NBQ00
- TIL I learned how to spell da :)kaiyohtee
- NBQ00-1
"President" of Belarus Lukashenko: 'Humanity is on the verge of a nuclear conflict'
