Russia-Ukraine Invasion
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- grafician0
"Was China Betting on Russian Defeat All Along?"
"China has been seen by many as the most important ally of Russia in the invasion of Ukraine. However, after nearly two weeks of fighting, confusing episodes have been culminating around China’s attitude to the war. Regarding both the UN Security Council and General Assembly resolutions, China has abstained rather than voted on the side of Russia. Regarding the sanctions on Russia, China hasn’t shown much of a willingness to help thus far, and two major Chinese banks, the Bank of China and the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, have even refused to help Russia process export transactions. Instead of supporting Russia, Chinese minister of foreign affairs, Wang Yi has called for de-escalation of the conflict. China seems to be pulling back its support from Russia, everywhere from diplomacy to economics.
On the other hand, however, Chinese statements right before the war seemed to have indicated Beijing’s full support for Moscow, and the fact that Russia waited for the end of the Beijing Winter Olympics seems to confirm rumors that Xi asked Putin to do so, indicating in turn that China was fully aware of what was coming, and decided to support it in full knowledge. Thus: Full support for the invasion before it started, but then a gradual pulling back once the invasion was underway – What’s going on here? Did China change its mind due to some unexpected occurrence?
What if nothing such happened, but it was a consistent strategy to encourage Russia to attack at first, but roll back its support after the war has started? Knowing the history of Sino-Russian relations, a Russian victory doesn’t seem to be in China’s interest. What is in China’s interest is a prolonged war of attrition, draining Russia’s resources as much as possible, weakening it as much as possible, meanwhile isolating it from the West as much as possible, and with a Russian defeat at the end."
- hmm... basing on all that on things reported in news and info in public domain. No idea what happens behind closed doors....shapesalad
- No way China or anyone could have predicted the ruin it would cause Russia. Ukraine war is NOT good for China. Been reading Peter Zeihan on the subj.mandomafioso
- https://twitter.com/…mandomafioso
- @mando you have any linkage? cuz I think China had to have a better assessment of Russia's Military incompetence than the NATO allies did.jonny_quest_lives
- Probably the only benefit of the US perpetual "War on Terror" was the modernization/retask... of US Armed forces into the most lethal/nimble fighting force.jonny_quest_lives
- China is now in the awkward position of having to vastly increase their internal military spending knowingjonny_quest_lives
- Russia would not be able to deal with NATO in any conventional armed combat.jonny_quest_lives
- So now US military is like "see we told you China is the near peer adversary we always warned you about. The myth of the Russian military is deflating daily.jonny_quest_lives
- and it took the US completely by surprise... now the risk is how desperate does Putin get as he's kind of cornered on this whole shitshow.jonny_quest_lives
- China always reaped the benefits of US Strategic interests being tied up in Afghanistan, The Middle East and Putin messing about in Ukraine.jonny_quest_lives
- China might have signed on to the 48hr overthrow version of this war. I don’t think anyone figured Russia would sell their fuel for vodka in Belarus.monNom
- I doubt China, or anyone, has things this well planned out. According to this article, the Chinese military modeled itself on Russian military, many of China'syuekit
- top officials speak Russian, they share similar tactics and doctrines.
https://menafn.com/1…yuekit - So a Russian defeat or stalemate in Ukraine makes China look bad as well and throws the idea of invading Taiwan into question.yuekit
- It would be China's undoing. Taiwan has more SAMs than Ukraine. Plus it's across a vast expanse of water. Only way to take it is amphibious assault. Impossible.mandomafioso
- Follow this guy. I haven't seen anyone with a more clear-eyed, if slightly pessimistic view of geopolitics than him. https://twitter.com/…mandomafioso
- I've listened to a lot of analysis on Taiwan, and there are sharply divergent views even among US military. Some seem to think China will be able to overwhelmyuekit
- Taiwan with sheer numbers, while denying USA and others access to the region. However the CCP leadership is more cautious than loose cannon Putin,yuekit
- and Taiwan invasion is something that is always five or ten years in the future. Watching Ukraine will make them think twice about all the things that canyuekit
- go wrong in such a "special operation." Taiwan's best hope is simply to outlast Xi and hope China eventually returns to a more moderate path.yuekit
- Nostradamus predicted it allinteliboy
- NBQ000
An American fighting along Ukrainians and live-tweeting their progress.
- drgs0
"fundamental difference is outlook on life: poor of Ukraine want more; poor of Russia want others to have nothing too."
pr2I'll bet the average Russians are secretly welcoming these sanctions. For them personally it means nothing -- a transition from a shitty life to an even shittier one.
It is the rich oligarchs and the ruling elite that they want to see burn. They have been waiting for the Red Turmoil for 20 years.Consider it to be a proletarian revolution, except the rich elite is overthrown by a third, external party, and the proletariat is passive as a spectator
Discuss
- Nahgrafician
- I've seen some Russian people agree with this view, the trouble is when a country is cut off from rest of the world it usually ends up increasing the poweryuekit
- of ruling elites, crony capitalists etc. And that includes the ones that claimed they were carrying out proletarian revolutions.yuekit
- Venezuela has very high inequality for instance
https://wid.world/co…yuekit - exported oligarchs are just a fraction of the rassan rich elite, they aren't new or anything just their visibility was turned up a bit in the recent decades.sted
- they won't go anywhere. and the average person at the end all of this will get an excuse why this and that isn't available or working as it should.sted
- sted2
fucking animals.
- NBQ001
300 dead confirmed that saught shelter in theathre of Mariupol.
Those pigs knew only women and children were in there.
Fucking scum war criminals.
- source?zaq
- https://edition.cnn.…NBQ00
- Ukes were using the theatre for munitions storage, I read.********
- Ukes got form for that. (the disused maternity hospital)********
- Right Bobo, nice Gremlin propaganda as usual.NBQ00
- @Brabo_Brabo there is no military on the planet that is using civilian shelter as ammo depot.sted
- That is completely illogical and devoid of any reality.sted
- ^ To say nothing of impractical and insecure.Continuity
- What about when 0bumma blew that Afghan hospital up?********
- Why is Bobo always on the wrong side of things?mathinc
- Or the VC hoarding munitions in Villages?
Plenty of examples of civilian weapons dumps in asymmetric wars.******** - Or the Ukes storing missiles in that shopping mall..********
- NBQ001
lol, Russia now says...
First phase of Ukraine operation mostly complete, focus now on Donbass.
And I thought they wanted to overthrow the government, take the entire country.
What a humiliation.
- yeah they got the UA forces focusing on protecting northern cities, while they proceed with the cut-off from the black sea.sted
- if you scroll back a few weeks you can see my prediction map...sted
- https://twitter.com/…NBQ00
- ONLY way to have a win in their version of reality. JUST LIKE TRUMP which still thinks he won and acts like it for his followersgrafician
- @sted how can they hold anything going forward? they will lose every inch of land they got including Crimeagrafician
- It's like shaking a bee hive for honey and when the bees attack you say "just wanted to take a look around chill"
ffsakegrafician - But good, Vlad will sell this version of reality to the Russian slaves and keep his dominion going for a short minute. He's 70, his supporters are 70...grafician
- tactical analyzes show otherwise.
regardless of their losses they had success in holding a line at the ports in the south.sted - Biden hinted he talked to Zelesnky about the possibility of losing territory as a compromise - so probably Crimea or some South region/port
But I doubt itgrafician
- utopian2
Russian soldiers ran over their commander, apparently blaming him for heavy losses in Ukraine.
- grafician0
"According to analysts, since the beginning of the war, #Russian army has lost 530 tanks, while the Armed Forces of #Ukraine have lost 74 of their own, but captured 117 enemy tanks."
Tractors ftw
- So, UA are making a net profit on tanks. That's kind of all right.Continuity
- grafician0
"BREAKING: Citing leaked internal Russian government communications, Ukraine’s influential former Interior Minister Arsen Avakov has tweeted the following updated casualty figures for the war in Ukraine:
Russian army: 15,007
Mercenary forces: 4862
Total Russian dead: 19,869"
- shapesalad0
Putin has used these:
- Meanwhile 60% of their "high precision" weapons fail...grafician
- NBQ002
Russia has stopped ground movements toward Kyiv and moved in defensive positions, US official says
- grafician-1
"Russia Is Trying To Send In Some Reinforcments From Georgia, Official Says"
That Russian youtuber who moved there is fucked
- GuyFawkes1
Great piece from vice
- jonny_quest_lives0
"Vladimir Putin's defence minister 'vanishes with heart problems' as war stalls"
Those 9×18mm Makarov's are pretty hard on the heart.
