Russia-Ukraine Invasion
- Started
- Last post
- 2,433 Responses
- tank021
But what if the conventional wisdom is wrong? What if the West is only playing into Putin’s hands once again?
The possibility is suggested in a powerful reminiscence from The Times’s Carlotta Gall of her experience covering Russia’s siege of Grozny, during the first Chechen war in the mid-1990s. In the early phases of the war, motivated Chechen fighters wiped out a Russian armored brigade, stunning Moscow. The Russians regrouped and wiped out Grozny from afar, using artillery and air power.
Did you know you can share 10 gift articles a month, even with nonsubscribers?
Share this article.
Russia’s operating from the same playbook today. When Western military analysts argue that Putin can’t win militarily in Ukraine, what they really mean is that he can’t win clean. Since when has Putin ever played clean?“There is a whole next stage to the Putin playbook, which is well known to the Chechens,” Gall writes. “As Russian troops gained control on the ground in Chechnya, they crushed any further dissent with arrests and filtration camps and by turning and empowering local protégés and collaborators.”
Suppose for a moment that Putin never intended to conquer all of Ukraine: that, from the beginning, his real targets were the energy riches of Ukraine’s east, which contain Europe’s second-largest known reserves of natural gas (after Norway’s).
Editors’ Picks
Underneath It All, She’s 100% Lizzo
When the Master of the Erotic Thriller Fails to Thrill
Soda and Beer Companies Are Ditching Plastic Six-Pack Rings
Continue reading the main storyCombine that with Russia’s previous territorial seizures in Crimea (which has huge offshore energy fields) and the eastern provinces of Luhansk and Donetsk (which contain part of an enormous shale-gas field), as well as Putin’s bid to control most or all of Ukraine’s coastline, and the shape of Putin’s ambitions become clear. He’s less interested in reuniting the Russian-speaking world than he is in securing Russia’s energy dominance.
“Under the guise of an invasion, Putin is executing an enormous heist,” said Canadian energy expert David Knight Legg. As for what’s left of a mostly landlocked Ukraine, it will likely become a welfare case for the West, which will help pick up the tab for resettling Ukraine’s refugees to new homes outside of Russian control. In time, a Viktor Orban-like figure could take Ukraine’s presidency, imitating the strongman-style of politics that Putin prefers in his neighbors.
If this analysis is right, then Putin doesn’t seem like the miscalculating loser his critics make him out to be.
It also makes sense of his strategy of targeting civilians. More than simply a way of compensating for the incompetence of Russian troops, the mass killing of civilians puts immense pressure on Zelensky to agree to the very things Putin has demanded all along: territorial concessions and Ukrainian neutrality. The West will also look for any opportunity to de-escalate, especially as we convince ourselves that a mentally unstable Putin is prepared to use nuclear weapons.
Within Russia, the war has already served Putin’s political purposes. Many in the professional middle class — the people most sympathetic to dissidents like Aleksei Navalny — have gone into self-imposed exile. The remnants of a free press have been shuttered, probably for good. To the extent that Russia’s military has embarrassed itself, it is more likely to lead to a well-aimed purge from above than a broad revolution from below. Russia’s new energy riches could eventually help it shake loose the grip of sanctions.
This alternative analysis of Putin’s performance could be wrong. Then again, in war, politics and life, it’s always wiser to treat your adversary as a canny fox, not a crazy fool.
- https://www.nytimes.…tank02
- "Did you know you can share 10 gift articles a month, even with nonsubscribers?" says it allgrafician
- “ Underneath It All, She’s 100% Lizzo”Chimp
- yuekit2
Meanwhile on Russian state TV...
Host Evgeny Popov says it's time for the Russian people to call on Americans to change "the regime in the U.S." before its term expires "and to again help our partner Trump to become President."
- lol it **IS** time for regime change here in the US! Very astute, comrade!MondoMorphic
- Trump will be Speaker after the midterms.********
- people forget trump sanctioned the fuck out russia while he was in officehotroddy
- The Trump administration did, there's no evidence that Trump himself supported any of that and plenty to the contrary.yuekit
- NBQ001
Whoa, so Ukraine helicopters struck the ammunition depot in Belgorod (Russia).
https://twitter.com/L_Team10/sta…
Unless it's a false flag op since there should've probably been anti-aircraft systems in place.
Another video:
- Not ammunition, apparently oil facility.NBQ00
- https://twitter.com/…NBQ00
- NBQ001
Holy shit :)
Ukraine now conductiing "special military operations" in Russia!
It is now confirmed — Ukrainian military has delivered a strike on a Russian airfield in Millerovo, Rostov Oblast
A number of enemy aircraft have been destroyed.
- yuekit0
The aging Putin is accompanied by a huge team of doctors, including a thyroid cancer surgeon, according to investigative outlet Proekt. Also talks about some of the corruption in Putin's family. The story is in Russian but the illustrations are worthwhile in their own right.
- To be taken with a substantial grain of salt, I suspect. I can't imagine 'leaks' like this would be in any way accurate in a country with no more press freedom.Continuity
- Could thyroid problems explain his moon face?drgs
- Hitler only had one ball.********
- lots of coughing and throat clearing in his recent address about oil payments in rubles.monNom
- "I guess "Putin continues to accept payments in euros and dollars" isn't nearly as sexy as "Putin demands payments in rubles", but it's still true."grafician
- It could explain the extreme anti-COVID measures like the giant table. Putin being scared of COVID seems strange but if he is immunocompromised it makes sense.yuekit
- NBQ000
The Ukrainian General Staff tells my colleague
fpiatov, it does “not have this information” that Ukrainian forces attacked an oil depot in Belgorod oblast, hinting that the attack could have been a Russian false flag operation to justify further brutal attacks onhttps://twitter.com/JulianRoepck…
Re:
- https://twitter.com/…NBQ00
- Ukraine not confirming or denying it. If it was Ukraine it shows a complete and laughable breakdown of Russian defences_niko
- Ukraine playing it well - if it wasn't, Russia is false flagging. If it was Ukraine, Russia is super weak. 1:0 to Ukraine either way.shapesalad
- NBQ003
Crazy video, lol
- NBQ001
The Russians are so dumb. Getting their asses kicked hard atm
- pr20
Let's remember that the Neo-Nazi Putin has killed hundreds of his own country civilians only so stupid Ruskies could support his war in Chechnya. He got his ex-KGB forces to do his dirt work:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ru…
Any Russian journalist or politician who tried to investigate was assassinated.
The greatest evil man of XX century, Stalin, would be proud of this midget.- pr2 you're way better at this war analysis thing than that covid analysis thing...grafician
- lol agree_niko
- yupGuyFawkes
- graf, imagine that your understanding of covid is equivalent of average Russian's understanding of this war...pr2
- only question remains... who is part of the network that controlls putin?neverscared
- Lol pr2... don’t ever change!_niko
- Alexander Litvinenko wrote a book about it before being poisoned https://en.wikipedia…yuekit
- grafician0
Remember this?
https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/st…
"The Russians are so dumb."
I mean...
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnic…
It's Friday...
- grafician2
- They seem to have based it on Boris Johnson’s hairIanbolton
- i can't see anything in this empty road photoKrassy
- https://c.tenor.com/…scarabin
- monNom2
More info on the Russian Chernobyl withdrawal
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/r…
Apparently 7 busloads of Russian troops now in a radiation ward in Belarus, as they went and dug a trench system within the highly contaminated 'red forest' --one of the most contaminated areas in the world today.
Ukrainian staff at the site described their operations within the forest as "suicidal".
- The Russians are outdoing themeselves in the stupidity department. Orcs indeed_niko
- subhuman orcs?********
- Wow. That is just tragic at the extreme level.shapesalad
- pr22
two pilots (and two gunners) with balls of steel bombarded the oil storage facility inside Russia:
- _niko5
The more I read about the invasion the more I realize that they’re just filming a sequel to “Death of Stalin”
It’s the only explanation for the absurdity and stupidity of the Russians
- Ramanisky23
- Never seen so many war crimes committed. “Collateral damage” is one thing but deliberate shooting at innocent people, just unbelievable.NBQ00
- The Russian scum is frustrated that they can’t win against Ukr army and think it’s cool to kill ppl who can’t defend themselves.NBQ00
- Great job against those nazi women and children and grandmas! Hope they killed a few nazi cats and dogs too!_niko
- yuekit0
Interview with a Russian sociologist who correctly predicted the Ukraine invasion. He says Russia under Putin is transforming from a conservative authoritarian government like Napoleon, into a fully fascist one. Also claims that Russia temporarily gaining an advantage over the USA in the field of hypersonic weapons may have influenced Putin's decision to go to war.
